less than three Lakers dot com

How does the argument go? “If you put LeBron on the Lakers and Kobe on the Cavs, we’d be Witnessing the league’s first 100-win season.” Pretty good impersonation, right?

Well let’s look at the numbers. But not the ones you’re expecting.

Phil Jackson is not Mike Brown. He has a complicated offensive system which is designed to get the best out of his players, not just the best out of ONE player. Cleveland’s offensive system relies heavily on Lebron James and James is most effective when he’s driving to the basket either for a layup / dunk himself, or to attract double teams and kick out to open shooters. The NBA Key however, is not that large; not large enough for three offensive big men, and their defenders to all comfortably be in. In order to clear out the key and open driving lanes to the basket for Lebron, the Cavs oftentimes run screen and rolls with Big Z or Varejao in order to draw their defenders away from the rim. They also generally stick Big Z or Varejao away from the key whether or not they are the one giving the screen to Lebron. This tactic of clearing your bigs out of the lane to allow Lebron James to drive is effective for Lebron, but wildly ineffective for the Cleveland’s bigs. No matter how good of a mid range jump shooter Big Z and Varejao are (and Big Z is pretty good), logic says that a big man with post moves will always be more effective in the low block.

And Phil Jackson, although a Zen Buddhist (not a particularly good friend of logic), understands and accepts this logic. In his system, his two seven footers Bynum and Gasol, play in or around the key almost exclusively. Why do they play around the key almost exclusively? Because Phil realizes that playing inside out, through his big men, and playing his big men to their strengths is just smart fundamental basketball. To be a perimeter player on Phil’s team, you have to have a midrange / long range jump shot because you have to appreciate Phil’s intelligent use of his bigs. That’s why Kobe and Jordan thrive so well under Phil, they have been two of the best mid range shooting guards in league history.

In analyzing the shooting areas for the four big men in question: Varejao, Bynum, Gasol, Big Z, I use three zones:

1) Inside The Key: Refers to all the shots inside the key and below the free throw line
2) The Sides: Refers to the area outside of the key where most big men try to post up their players
3) Midrange: Refers to the area outside the rim between 12 ft and the 3pt line.

I’m not including the three point line because 3 of the 4 have barely shot any 3’s and most of those attempts were to beat the shot clock. Big Z has shot over 30 three pointers this season but for simplicity’s sake, I won’t include those numbers.

It’s important to note that Big Z and Varejao shoot worse from right outside the key than they do from midrange. This is due to the fact that most of their mid ranged shots are wide open and a result of Lebron James’ penetration while most of their shots near the key are due to a lack of success in backing down their opponents and an eventual contested shot. However, a shot near the key is important because it usually indicates that although the Cleveland big men are not that effective, they are posting up and thus working to their strengths in drawing fouls and getting near to the rim. Shooting a mid ranged jump shot negates the ability to get to the line, and in all four players’ cases, makes them far less effective.

Big Z shoots 54% from inside the paint, but only 44% from mid range, yet he shoots more midrange shots in Cleveland’s offense than post-up shots. Big Z is an 80% free throw shooter with a wide array of post moves (as evidenced by his 54.0 FG% from the post). When he’s in the post, he gets fouled and goes to the foul line converting at an 80% rate. If you combine all of Big Z’s shots inside the key with his shots from the sides (often times failed attempts to back down defenders) and compare it to his total shots, Cleveland runs their offense in a way to get 54% of Big Z’s shots in a post up situation. That means that almost half of Big Z’s shot attempts in Cleveland come from the perimeter where he is substantially inferior shooting the ball, and less effective at getting to the line.

Varejao shoots 62% from inside the paint, but only 39% from mid range and a dismal 28% from the sides. Although Varejao shoots 80% of his shots from inside, or near the key, he has still shot 97 shots from mid range. That’s over one shot a game and is clearly not an effective or efficient way for Varejao to play considering that he’s worse than Ilgauskas from mid range, and better than Ilgauskas from inside the paint.

Part of the reason that both of these players are shooting an unusually high percentage of their shots from the perimeter rather than from the key, is because of the Cleveland offensive system, which plays to Lebron’s strengths, and other people’s weaknesses. By clearing the big men out of the key or using them for wing screen and rolls with Lebron, Cleveland is opening up the driving lanes for James to attach. Unfortunately, in doing so, they relegate their two best post players to spots on the floor where their shooting percentages drop by double digits and their free throw attempts all but disappear. If Kobe were to play in Cleveland, his mid range and pull up jumper would allow him to be effective while allowing Ilgauskas and Varejao to play low-post basketball – their most effective kind.

In contrast to Cleveland’s playbook, the Lakers play within Phil Jackson’s Triangle Offense which has long been acknowledged as the most dominant offensive system in the NBA. This is partly due to the fact that the Triangle Offense relies heavily on posting up big men and playing from the inside out.

If we were to compare Gasol to Ilgauskas, two seven footers who have made the All-Star team, have above average free throw shooting, great perimeter jump shots and a wide array of low post moves, Andrew Bynum could be compared to Varejao in having a poor perimeter game with a strong low post game.

Gasol shoots 62% from inside the key, above average in free throws, and a respectable 41% from mid range. Like Ilgauskas he shoots in the low 40% from the sides directly outside the key (in failed post up attempts usually). The similarities in their scoring skill sets make it all the more shocking to find out that Gasol scores from the low post and from directly outside the key with a far greater consistency than Big Z. Gasol shoots 90% of his shots from near the key, or inside the key, whereas Ilgauskas shoots only 54% of his shots in the same area. Considering the fact that Ilgauskas only shoots 3% better from the mid range than Gasol, this GIGANTIC difference between the two in their shot selection can only be the result of a different offensive scheme. On the one hand, Phil Jackson’s offensive scheme consistently uses Gasol in the most efficient way possible, whereas Mike Brown consistently uses his big man in an inefficient manner.

Bynum shoots a shocking 97% of his shots from near, or right next to the rim, whereas Varajeo, although shooting near the rim with more consistency than Big Z, still only takes 80% of his shots from that area.

Although both the Lakers and the Cavaliers have big men that shoot far more effectively from the post than they do from the perimeter, the Lakers do a far better job designing their offense to play towards their big guys’ strengths rather than their weaknesses. The Cavaliers on the other hand, consistently play towards the weaknesses of Ilgauskas, and to a lesser degree, Varejao throughout the game.

This isn’t a coincidence.

Kobe’s complete and polished skill set allows him to be effective as a scorer from the perimeter, enabling his big guys to stay in the low block. Lebron James on the other hand is much more effective near the basket than he is at the perimeter, forcing his big guys out of the key to clear up the congestion.

Essentially, Lebron constant driving to the basket is HURTING his big guys, and making them less effective and less efficient. Now of course it seems that Lebron should drive to the basket because it allows him to score with relative ease and open up opportunities for other players. The problem is that, if he had the mid range skill set of Kobe, he could score with relative ease from the perimeter. And no matter how many wide open mid range jump shots Ilgauskas gets during the course of a game due to James’ penetration, he is still being used inefficiently, because wide open or not, he’s still averaging 10% less from the field than he would be in the post.

Not quite what the King James hype machine keeps telling is to believe, is it?